Or on the Internet if you prefer…
Now I’m notorious, at least in my own mind, for calling out players that are on the brink of being the next big thing. Freshmen call outs for players such as U of F alums and current stars, Joakim Noah and Tim Tebow in their rookie seasons. Picking up Tim Lincecum for his first big league start May 6th in ’07. Drafting Josh Hamilton far earlier than anyone thought he should be picked up before the mammoth break out that was the 1st half of the ’08 season. My irrational love for Erik Bedard and his subsequent ’07 strikeout king title. As well as my prediction that Deangelo Williams would be the best RB of his draft class. The latter has been nearly on point, though my favorite little bowling ball (Maurice Jones-Drew) continues to impress.
Yes, the list goes on and yes all, this fine young (and becoming oldish) gentlemen were highly touted prospects as they pushed their way towards stardom in their respective professions. But the point is, they all made me feel better about myself and my scouting abilities and they have become big successes, at least for their college tenures and a couple prominent fantasy seasons.
So now is the time for me to go out and make some big(ish) claims about who exactly the budding stars in queue are. Both those players finding their way onto my fantasy teams and climbing the depth chart on their assorted rosters. I can only assume this will come back to bite me and thus cause a massive sense of distrust and distaste amongst my followers. But hell, all of my article/blog writing/ranting lunatic idols are wrong with an alarming consistency, but it still works for them (here’s looking at you Matthew Berry!).
This is the first installment of my many “Ups and Downs” projections and I’ll keep it to Football this time around. I’ll give you a handful of my favorite potential breakouts and a little blurb offering some “factual support” as to why I believe they are the stars of tomorrow and/or why they'll beat their projected production.
Since I’ll have my predictive juices flowing on full tilt I’ll also provide you with some busts for thought and the things I’m down on. So without further adieu (and plenty more further adon’t) here are my ups and downs.
Up on:
1. Tate Forcier, QB, Michigan – Ok, so I’m a little late with this one. It was a projection of mine 2 weeks ago, but of course with his dissection of Notre Dame just a week and a half ago, he became a household name to most any casual CFB fan. But Tate still deserves to make this list because I believe he’ll continue to rise over the next 4 years of his career and has a shot to bring Michigan back to prominence.
2. Chansi Stuckey, WR, New York Jets – In his 3rd year with the Jets, Chansi has his opportunity to be a breakout receiver and a stud in any Points Per Reception fantasy league. Chansi will be asked, amongst others, to fill the receptions gap that’s opened up thanks to the departure of Laverneus Coles. A clear #3 option behind Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller, Stuckey will still get his fair share of targets particularly as a safety valve and slot receiver. My prediction, this year’s Wes Welker candidate, plus he’s had more targets in the end zone than one would expect after the first 2 weeks.
3. Cedric Benson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals – He’s already turned in 2 above average fantasy games, which is beyond most fantasy experts projections. But he’s been stowed away on my fantasy rosters because not only is he one of only a handful of running backs who wont split carries but he’s in the best shape he’s been in since his rookie year and has a coach that believes in him. And, to make an odd connection that Cedric Benson himself probably wouldn’t even find suitable, as John Mayer says, “Belief is a beautiful armor, it makes for the heaviest sword” and with Marvin Lewis’ belief, it’s my thought that Benson is starting to sharpen up and shape himself into a productive NFL RB.
4. Madden NFL ’10, XBOX 360 – The game is just downright good. Highly polished as well as fun and plenty challenging to play. Of course the Jets aren’t so stellar, and Leon Washington is only a 79 (What!?!) but the gameplay is much improved. A nice touch is the USAF fly-overs before big games…especially when you’re playing in a dome and they still fly over. Eh, glitch? I think so.
5. The Wildcat/Seminole/Dirty Bird offensive schemes – Whatever you call ‘em, (and the more creative the better) I like ‘em. Although I fashion myself quite the purist when it comes to just about any sport, I like my defensive struggles, pitchers duels, and zone defenses more than anybody I know. But there is something about this new wrinkle I just can’t kick. Give me some more! That is, until Mark Sanchez and Chad Pennington go out with concussions for diving headfirst into some nameless D-linemen’s knee.
6. Jozy Altidore, ST, on loan to Hull City – Hey, Futbol is Football! Jozy is also a clear-cut and well-developed prospect at this point, but the Foul Weather Fan operates under the belief that sports are sports and Futbol is a damn good one. Altidore’s size and striking ability just may be the difference in bringing U.S.A. soccer deep into the World Cup tourney. Besides, his name is “Jozy” and he’s still a beast!
Down on:
1. Marion Barber – Now to clarify, by no means is Marion Barber not a standout player and one of the better performers in the league. But it’s my personal belief that his hard running, “refuse to go down” days are starting to wear thin. I think this year we may see the introductory version of “Marion Barber: Touchdown Vulture, Vol. I” as Felix Jones slips into the more active and yard-eater role for the Boys.
2. Larry Fitzgerald – Now to Uber clarify, this by no means is my declaration that Larry Fitzgerald isn’t a freakishly good athlete and one of the best hands and spectacular catch guys around, but you have to respect the numbers. I agree he’s one of the top receivers in the league, but as far as fantasy goes, taking him in the first round? I just can’t be on board. Anquan Boldin is a #1a starter if Larry Fitz is your #1 and to think of Anquan as not being on the same plane as Larry just because he had some words with Todd Haley? That’s a touch ridiculous. This is more a declaration of my Adoration for Anquan than a Lament of Larry but either way, both will be stunning and both will be prolific AND both will have similar numbers.
3. Pre-game pyrotechnics – No, just don’t do it. Everyone loves the 4th of July, but there’s a reason why they are done on barges. "Smoke on the Water" is cool, just ask Deep Purple. But smoke on the field for the entirety of the first half is just never a good look (hmm…maybe Madden ’10 should have included a “Firework Residue” option). I tune in to see an epic battle not a Mini KISS extravaganza. And yes, at this point Mini KISS has more stage presence and more of a leg to stand on than appropriately sized KISS. Even if their hands aren’t big enough to actually play the guitars.
4. Santonio Holmes – Suffering (maybe relishing is the right word) from the Eli Manning complex, not-so-good for an entire season and very-so-good for the final 4 games that really count in the playoffs. In fact, Santonio wasn’t really that great in the Super Bowl until 2 fantastic plays and 4 catches on the final drive (which I can’t and wouldn’t dare to understate the “clutchness” of). Heroics withstanding, there’s no way Holmes should be drafted in the 4th or 5th round in any fantasy league. But also, Santonio, please act like you’ve been there before when it comes to getting first downs or touchdowns in the ’09 season. Not every first down scamper is quite as dramatic as your 6-yard XLIII thriller…
Which brings me to:
5. Guys who act like they haven’t been there before – I’d like to point out more specific individuals, and I have, (See: 4. Santonio Holmes) but it seems that, this year especially, few players have ever actually made a tackle, run for a touchdown, snagged a first down, or even jogged down the field at a brisk pace. I’m noticing that nearly every play made needs to be celebrated by at least one individual. No matter the time or the situation, football players seem to be eager to commemorate each individual accolade with a classy “shaking of their tail feather”, enigmatic “ballin’ dance move” or downright brazen “double first pump twirl to ground punch.” Excuse me, but I must have been conned into the belief that making that play…is your job! My favorite most recent example, a big hit by (I believe) #52 of the USC Trojans on one of the final plays of the USC vs. WASH game. His brute strength was on display both during and after the play, while he demonstrated his muscle flexing ability after demonstrating his prowess to plug the A-gap. Oh, did I mention the hit he made was on his own 10-yard line and just a few plays later Washington (winless in 2008) kicked the game-winning upset field goal with only a few seconds to spare? Oh yeah, that part probably wasn’t as profound to the player as his own tackle.
So there you go, a little bit of predicting, a little more nitpicking and plenty of ranting and raving. My first “Ups and Downs” prediction batch in all it’s uncertain glory. Talk amongst yourselves and then come on and talk to me when these all shake out. You at least have to argue the “Mini Kiss having more of a leg to stand on” bit, right?
